Politics: Or other things that don't matter

[fonebone]

True this.

Asscan made great counterpoints by the way.

thats great. at least he can make a point without calling someone a bitch.

[Eadres]

Preest is a clicker!

[fonebone]

No, he makes a totally valid point. She has no authority or expertise to be commenting on the state of our economy, especially to be throwing around damaging words like great depression. Last quarter was terrible, and we still managed to avoid a recession. A great depression is years of worse than that. Highly unlikely.

but that doesnt mean that it is not unlikly. I want to post this just so people will read it.

NEW YORK (CNN) -- "The people who survived the Great Depression were the ones who had money to buy when everybody else was selling." -- My grandfather

I learned a lot from my grandfather, but that might have been the greatest lesson he ever taught me. He wasn't just talking about managing money, he was talking about managing life -- and his words have stuck with me since I was a child.

A few years back, I was taking a theology course and the professor recommended only the books whose authors he agreed with. I read those books, but I also asked that professor which books he thought had it completely wrong -- and I read those too. Then I made up my own mind. After all, following the herd is fine until they all run off the side of a cliff together.

Less than a year ago, a recession was the last thing on anyone's mind. In fact, over the summer, as I was questioning the conventional wisdom, I read an article on my television show that quoted a financial expert as saying, "It is the strongest global market that we've seen in the history of measuring these things."

That's when I realized how fast the herd was approaching the cliff.


But with predictions of a recession now more common than Fed rate cuts -- and that's saying something -- maybe now it's time to look at a worst-case scenario. After all, considering all sides of an issue, no matter how extreme they may be, doesn't make you a crazy person; it makes you an educated one.

So to understand what a real meltdown could look like, I turned to Nouriel Roubini, chairman of RGE Monitor and professor of economics at New York University's Stern School of Business. He's also a former adviser to the U.S. Treasury Department.

Professor Roubini recently laid out what he called the "12 steps to financial disaster." Unfortunately, they were really complicated, and I have severe ADD, so I've boiled them down into five phases that even a rodeo clown like me can understand.

I think of these like our military's "DEFCON" -- or defense readiness condition -- scale, except that this countdown could end in the meltdown of your bank account:

• DEFCONOMY FIVE

How you'll know we're here: The housing downturn turns into a free fall, making it the worst collapse in our country's history. That not only triggers massive numbers of foreclosures and lost household wealth, but it also sets off another large wave of bank write-downs.

Odds we get here: Roubini told me that it's "extremely likely, even unavoidable" that we hit this stage because "the excess supply of new homes in the market is like we've never seen before." Prices, he believes, "need to fall another 10 to 20 percent before that clears."

• DEFCONOMY FOUR

How you'll know we're here: Americans upside-down on their mortgages and unable to pay their home equity loans begin defaulting on other debt, like credit cards, car loans and student loans. In addition, bond insurance companies lose their perfect credit ratings, forcing already troubled banks to write down another $150 billion.

Odds we get here: High. Roubini says that 8 million households are already upside-down on their mortgages and he thinks we could see that number go to between 16 million and 24 million by the end of 2009. A lot of those people, he believes, will simply walk away from their homes and send their keys back to the bank.

• DEFCONOMY THREE

How you'll know we're here: Some banks begin to crack under the pressure of continuing write-downs and mounting defaults by consumers. A national or large regional bank finally collapses, triggering hedge fund failures and general chaos on Wall Street, potentially leading to a 1987-style market crash.

Odds we get here: Very good. Roubini says that we'll likely socialize the losses, "effectively nationalizing the mortgages or the banks." It would be, he told me, "like Northern Rock (the large bank in England that was recently taken over by the British government) times three." He thinks the stock market will head south throughout the year as fears about a severe recession are confirmed.

• DEFCONOMY TWO

How you'll know we're here: Most forms of credit (both to consumers and businesses) become virtually nonexistent. That results in a "vicious circle" of additional write-downs, stock market losses, and bank collapses, which leads to even less credit being available.

Odds we get here: Good. Roubini says that credit conditions are becoming worse everyday across a variety of markets and won't be getting better anytime soon. Without extra credit available, people might have to actually (gasp!) live within their means.

• DEFCONOMY ONE

How you'll know we're here: Welcome back to 1929. A full economic meltdown results in a complete failure of the underlying financial system. What will be known to future generations as "The Greater Depression" has arrived.

Odds we get here: Not likely. Roubini believes that this will be a "very painful and severe recession" that could last for 18 months or more, but it will be more like 1981 than 1929. Families may be eating soup again, but at least it'll be in their own kitchens.
Now, do I think any of what you just read will happen?

I have no idea, and that's exactly the problem. I'm not an economist or a stockbroker; I'm just a guy trying to make the best decisions I can, and picking the brains of real experts helps me do that.

But I do know one thing for sure: Depressions aren't advertised in advance. Last time around we went from the Roaring '20s to bread lines in a matter of just a few years.

Anyone who says that can't happen again either doesn't know history, doesn't understand how interconnected the world's economies have become, or is lying to you. While that doesn't mean you should panic, it does mean you should prepare -- something my grandfather would've done a long time ago.

[Atelo]

One thing about the great depression in 1929 was the near total halt to world imports and exports. This is something I don't see happening today because as you said, the world economies are more dependent on one another than they were back then. So many companies have moved their factories overseas, there's no reason they won't continue to do that even in a limited fashion. Then there are things other countries produce that we can't produce here. Canada for example doesn't exactly have a booming banana and orange business, but there will always be demand for those things and they come from all over.

Of course, I'm no economist either and perhaps people won't be able to afford expensive fruits like that and imports of them will totally stop.

Also, China's booming economy just may survive a US depression, rather than the entire world sinking into a depression like 1929.

[Ander]

First of all you guys are taking my comments about Preest waaaay to seriously. I like to give him a hard time sure, knowing that when he reads one of my posts that his face will turn all red and he will curse a storm at the computer screen is a significant part of why I enjoy posting in this thread. That said everyone is entitled to their own opinion and I mean no disrespect to Preest. I simply happen to believe that the U.S. political/economic situation is a little bit more complicated then the latest youtube video would lead you to believe.

I also think the article that Fone posted was a good one I mean a crash may look unlikely at this point but it is by no means impossible. Case in point, the extreme action our government is taking right now to prevent these corporate giants like AIG from going under. Trust me the last thing our U.S. leaders want to do is bail out a bunch of bad loans owned by desperate and corrupt corporate fat-cats at the astronomical cost of $700 bil ( in the end probably more like a trillion). The fact of the matter is they are scared that our banking system can not cope with that kind of collapse. Think of it like the acropolis in Athens, every huge pillar that slides out of place hits another and another pretty soon there isn't enough support and the roof collapses.

The unique thing about this economic slide is that all the worlds economies are irrevocably locked into ours, this was not the case in 1929. If our economy went down now it would leave all major world economies in a bad place to say the least.

-Ander

[Isbeth]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=73Yx-RhHb4g


Be afraid... Be very afraid...

This bitch has even less of an idea of what the fuck is going on or what to do about it then I do. In any other country on earth both her and McCain (for picking her) would be laughed out of politics.

I agree with Preest! I don't "do" politics but I'm with him on his opinion this time, merely based on that video.

I didn't read him calling her out "bitch" as name calling.. I read it as him addressing the person who had just proved herself to be unprepared for the position she was nominated for; as in "that person over there" just in a sort of agitated way.
Really, watching that video would make me want to address her in that same way.
I think the harsh comments towards Preest comes from either a defense of the nominee whom they support (Palin) and a misunderstanding of his comment or tone ... OR a personal response to Preest and anything he says, which, I'm sure is not the intent and focus of this thread.

Alot of what you saw there was due to the emerging issues on the plan and her not wanting to give the interviewer a got ya moment (at a later time) due to McCain not having a clear position on this as of yet. Had you sat Joe "I'm no Hillary" Biden down he would have danced around just the same.

Much like the liberal comentator that was just chomping at the bit to have her own "gotcha" moment with Palin, there is no way you would have been happy with this. She was asked a direct question that was specifically designed to put her on the spot and which had no real good answer. Such is the way of anyone operating in a partisan mindset who is simply out to get the other side.

I think as VP of the United States, it would be important to know how to think on your feet.. or be prepared to answer questions that you might not know the best answer to. As VP of the United States, there is a chance you may end up President. Clearly she gave a POOR interview on her part. It reminded me of a very ordinary bottle feeding soccer mom of five (do they have soccer moms in AK?).
I know that I don't want some ordinary person leading my country... (Duhbuhya comes to mind).

If in times of troubles or conflict, I would hope that the VP would have equally intelligent ideas and impromptu responses to situations as our President.
Being a good orator is important. You need to be able to, in the very least verbally motivate, strengthen and support your fellow countrymen - let alone, talk us in to, or out of, important economic and political agreements with unsupportive nations. A dodgy, unprepared, response to sudden but not unexpected questions does not motivate ME to believe that she is competent enough to fill the spot of VP - or worse yet, President, should McCain...

Secondly your bashing on him for expressing his opinions without bashing you guys personally, and that's kind of messed up if you ask me. I think someone misconstrued one of his comments regarding being laughed out of politics as well, when he was only referring to McCain himself being laughed out for having selected Palin.

EXACTLY.

On that note:

http://www.hulu.com/watch/34465/saturda ... llary-open

[ascanius]

Much like the liberal comentator that was just chomping at the bit to have her own "gotcha" moment with Palin, there is no way you would have been happy with this. She was asked a direct question that was specifically designed to put her on the spot and which had no real good answer. Such is the way of anyone operating in a partisan mindset who is simply out to get the other side.

If you're running for the leader of a nation, you need to be well versed in the relevant subjects and knowledgeable all around. This isn't like managing a Target or Wallgreens, we're talking about our collective future. This 'they're asking hard questions to make her look stupid' thing is idiotic in general, if she wants the job she needs to do better and at least make a good attempt at distancing herself from what people think of her. Nobody wants a hockey mom in charge of their future, they want someone competent in any situation that might arise.

knowing him for how long we have had him in guild I would have to go for clueless.


as far as the economy goes here was a report done back in feb 08. many perdictions have come true since then. are we close to a great depression or do you think we can pull out before it gets really bad?

http://www.cnn.com/2008/US/02/28/beck.c ... index.html

That article is misleading on a few levels. Five and four are essentially the same thing, except four includes people defaulting on other debt, like credit cards, car loans, and student loans (which hasn't happened, and is one reason why most economists don't believe we're headed for a depression).

With so many subprime loans, three was only a matter of time. This was brought to Greenspan's attention eight (or so) years ago, and he could have used his powers as Chairman to stop them. He didn't, and it became a ticking time bomb. So much for laissez faire capitalism.

Two hasn't happened at all. Since credit is one of the most important parts of our consumer driven economy, the fact that it is readily available (for the most part) is a good indicator. One isn't even a reason or marker of a depression, its just stating there might be a depression.

Our unemployment level is still at an optimum level (we're at six percent, and the optimum is generally considered around five to seven) and inflation is in control. Those are the important overriding factors of a depression. While trends in those statistics (and a few others) do show that we're likely headed towards a recession (we barely beat the crunch last quarter) it doesn't seem likely to last very long.

Personally, I see this as another Y2K/bird flu/Ebola/asbestos/insertmediafueledpublicpanichere. I'm not saying there won't be hard times for some of us,(I wont be finished with my free [thank god for waved tuitions] degree for another 5-6 years so I should miss the tough times in my ivory tower) but I don't think panicking is the way to go.

However, should our worst fears be entertained, I heard Spuddwebb has a bunker in the desert filled with food, water, and guns. We can just meet there and start our own Mad Max type civilization. Guapa can be the crazy inventor, Fone can be in charge of the militia, Lish can be judge/jury/executioner, Bigbui can be the town whore, Hachi can be our token asian (sorry Roina), Kalias the eventual town traitor, Eadres our chief farmer, Atelo our fearless leader, Antilikos his second in command (but with veto power, lish serves as the tie-breaker), Baio storekeeper/accountant, Isbeth the resident councilor, Dartagn the mechanic, Ander the animal doctor, Phire the angry drunkard, Preest will make our clothing, and I will be head chef/brew master.

On a more serious note, I do believe Preest was out of line for the bitch comment. While it is common enough in our day to day vernacular, it is degrading towards women. It would be like me calling Obama a nigga; I might be well intentioned, but most people would think it is offensive.

[Preest]

Its true I LOVE yanking your guys' tails and can take the backlash that you guys give me in stride... I've known you guys for way too long to take it the wrong way. I would also think that you would have a MUCH higher standard in which to hold people, specifically the LEADERS OF YOUR GOVERMENT! I mean what ever happened to the best and brightest? Again, I ask that out of a country of over 300 MILLION people, she's the best possible person to be in the top job (which is how you should be looking at it, being she's a heartbeat away come January).

Also, whats so bad about calling her a bitch? I never knew we where all Sir Galahads. I've personally herd shit 1,000 times worse being said about guildmates own mom's in raids and everyone gets a chuckle out of it and I call a VP nominee a bitch and I step over the line? I can now see where the McCain campaign gets this "we arent going to let you interview Palin unless you show respect and deference" crap. I say toss ALL the nominees in to the media firestorm, its going to be a cake walk compared to dealing with Putin, Ahmadinejad or Kim Jong Il... Keep in mind the end result of what these people are running for, for crying out loud.


So go ahead and bash the shit out of me, I dont give a fuck... I just find it sad that I, a foreigner, hold YOUR country to a higher standard then some of you do. How sad is that? Dissent is patriotic.

[ascanius]

So go ahead and bash the shit out of me, I dont give a fuck... I just find it sad that I, a foreigner, hold YOUR country to a higher standard then some of you do. How sad is that? Dissent is patriotic.

I agree that dissent is patriotic, but Jefferson never said that (or anything like it). The head of the ACLU, I believe, said it in a speech during the early nineties and someone mistakenly credited it to Jefferson. And yes, I am (literally) a card carrying member of the ACLU. Its in-between my Bevmo card (cheap booze is that much tastier) and driver's license. Cops might get suspicious if they see a liquor store discount card next to my license.

Edit: Not that I'm saying you said it was Jefferson, but a lot of people think he did say that.

[Ander]

I just find it sad that I, a foreigner, hold YOUR country to a higher standard then some of you do. How sad is that? Dissent is patriotic.

I hate to break it to you here guys but at the end of the day those who vote will end up voting on their beliefs not on anyone’s experience. If it were really a matter of experience we would have to kick both Obama and Palin out and have McCain and Biden going at it for prez. Apparently people really don't give a crap according to the poll numbers despite what we may say people seem to really like Obama and Palin.

If you want some dissent I think the whole line up is crap but that's just me.

On a side note I like how our town has an animal doctor but not a people doctor and from the sound of it Assys job is just to make drinks for Phire all day. I see Phire dying of liver disease, Spudd sending us to a fake bunker and ditching us, Guapa inventing a bomb that Fone accidentally detonates killing Hachi and Biggs who happen to be in the same tent, Lish executes Fone for bombing the wrong people, Preest making slutty clothes for all the men, Atelo deciding the hunters should be lashed for not properly looting the desert hounds, Anti vetoing the decision, Lish executing them both and taking power, Dart tying up Isi in our only jeep and getting the bleep out of there, a rabid dog attacking Assy and me only being able to treat the dog as I am only licensed to treat animals, Ead and Baio locking themselves in with the food supply, Kalias running away when Lish finds out he was bribing the hunters not too loot the hounds, Lish taking the last of our water to go after Kalais, Lish finding Kalias pile-driving him and executing him.

-Ander

P.S. Sarah Palin is a total bizznacth and so is Assy's mother.